February 1, 2020
MIDDLE - EAST UPDATE
By Arthur Kane Scott
As we enter Winter, 2020, the Middle East once again dominates the news. The Iranian-American crisis is pivotal as it could lead to an intensification of conflict between the two powers, but with major ramifications for other Middle East countries, if not the world, given the U. S. abandonment of the nuclear agreement with Teheran.
Geopolitical/cultural complexity represents a core theme within the Middle East making it challenging to analyze, or predict. Let me identify some of the forces, outside/inside the Middle East, that make it opaque for westerners to grasp.
First, was the Obama/Iran nuclear agreement in which in exchange for stopping its nuclear program Teheran was free to engage in global economic activity with the American expectation that it would return to the family of nations focusing on economic growth rather than territorial influence through Shia proxies.
Second, this deal was rescinded by President Trump in part because of his personal dislike for Obama, and because the War Hawks in his administration, Bolden/Pompeo, are proponents of regime change and disliked Teheran’s proxy politics within the Middle East.
Third, abandoning the Nuclear Deal unilaterally was a slap in the face of the other signatories: England, France, Germany, Russia and China. It was part of Trump’s `American First `policy, shifting away from NATO, and the European Union, which were anchors of American foreign policy since the Presidency of FDR.
Four, historically, oil has been the major commodity of the Middle East, and explains its geopolitical significance. Oil motivated the West to come into the region after World War I seeking to dominate its `black gold. `Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran remain the major exporters. However, a significant global shift is that America today, because of fracking and the emergence of alternative energy sources like solar and wind of fracking, has become energy independent.
Five, the Middle East is geographically significant as its connects East with West, characterized by major sea ways, or connectors through which human, cultural and material resources have passed thorough the eons. Suez Canal and Red Sea; Straits of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf; Mediterranean, Arabian and Black and Caspian Sea. These vital seaways have been pivotal points of East-West tension as exemplified today by Straits of Hormuz, in which 20-30 percent of world`s oil is shipped.
Six, geopolitically the Middle East find itself divide by multiple proxy wars. On the one hand, you have America and its allies: Saudi Arabia, Israel and Turkey. On the other, Russia flanked by Iran, Syria and Yemen. Origin of these proxy war can be traced back to the disastrousdecision made by GW Bush to overthrow Saddam Hussein, and to transform it into an American enclave.This war has costs hundreds of thousands of deaths, mostly Iraqis, and at least $2 trillion dollars.
Seven,complicating these matters is the Sunna/Shia divide. Iraq was artificially created by the British under Churchill in 1920. The problem was and is that the Arabs who lived there were divide in their expression of Islam between Sunna and Shia. Sunna comprised about 85% of the Muslim world, and are more traditional in their religious expression. Shia, however, historically challenged the transmission of power away from the Prophet’s family in the seventh century. Iranians are Shia, along with about one/third of all Iraqis, as well as the Houthi of Yemen, and the ruling Bashir family of Syria.
Eight, making matters worse for Iraq is the Kurdish Question. The Kurds, who are Indo-European/Christians, occupy northern Iraq and have longed to be independent by creating a separate state called Kurdistan since World War I. Their national aspiration, however, is resisted by nearly everybody as it would embrace northeastern Syria, southern Turkey, and spill into northwestern Iran. In addition, it wouldinclude the headwaters of the Tigris-Euphrates Rivers, and northern Iraq is rich in oil.
Nine, complicating matters for America is its ties to Saudi Arabia under Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). This relationship has been prompted by Jared Kushner as a way to enhance the Kushner/Trump family fortunes while attempting to acquire American supportfor Riyadh’s domination of the Arabian Peninsula along with its various Arab Kingdoms with special attention on Yemen. Yemen becomes important strategically as an alternative way to deliver oil away from the Straits of Hormuz controlled by the Iranians. But to develop a new pipeline through Yemen requires defeating the pro-Iranian Houthi tribesmen. Relations between Riyadh and Washington havesomewhat soured over the murder of Saudi writer and critic Jamal Khashoggi of the Washington Post. An execution probably ordered by MBS.
Ten, Israel has enjoyed aspecial relationship with Washington going back to theTrumanAdministration vote in favor of an Israeli state at the Unite Nations in 1948. Washington over the years has seen Israel as a lynchpin in its Middle East policy. This special relationship explains why Israel is the only Middle East country with nuclear arms.Making problems for Israel, however, is the Palestinian Question in which the Palestinian goal of two-state solution has been Gerrymandered by the Israelis with walls, check -points and the Balkanization of the West Bank. Washington,too, under Trump/Kushner, has embraced apartheid as a reality by recognizing Jerusalem as its national capital. This has angered the Palestinians especially Hamas, and accounts for the deepening tensions between the two communities. There seems to be little movement for a compromise between Netanyahu and Benny Gants (military Chief) to end the political paralysis in Israel within the Keenest.
Eleven, Turkey is not Arab, but Turkic. Historically, it has always followed a Turkish first policy regarding its minorities leading to the Armenian/Assyrian holocaust of 1915. Since the formation of NATO in 1948, Turkey has become an essential part of the western military alliance to act as a check on an expansive Soviet Union. Turkey, too, has been an important anchor of US policy in the Middle East.But under Tayyip Erdogan it has become a wild card. He has emerged as an authoritarian ruler who over the last two years has trampled upon democratic rule in Turkey. He /Trump share the same political orientation and over phone call with Trump, he convinced the President to withdraw American troops from northern Syria at the expense of the Kurds/ Christian minorities. Immediately Turkey entered the region releasing 15-30,000 ISIS combatants who will surely resume their terrorism and attempt to re-established the Caliphate as a counter to the Shite/Syrian military rule of Bashar Assad supported by Iran, Hezbollah and Russia. What makes Turkey even more problematic is it controls access to 50 nuclear bombs 10 times more powerful than those dropped on Hiroshima. Dr. Strangelove is alive and well in Turkey.
Twelve, Syrian Civil War started in 2011 and grew from the Arab Spring. The Assad family has ruled since 1971. They are Shia Alawites, and are opposed by FSA (Free Syria Army), who demand political reform, inspired by the Arab Spring, and overthrow of Bashir Assad. Approximately ΒΌ million Syrians have lost their lives and many more, 4.5 million, have fled to Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Europe (Germany) to escape the horrors of the civil war, including use of Sarin/chemical weapons. Unfortunately, out of this Crisis arose the Sunna ISIS/Caliphate in which Syria lost much of its territory until very recent. The Assad opposition has come primarily from the Sunna countries: Turkey, SA, Qatar, Jordan, and the Kurds along with US, Britain & France. Obama although drawing a `red line` was unwilling to become a major player in Syria because of America’s wariness over Middle East, and the failure of the Bush Doctrine to transform the Middle East into a bastion of democracy following the American example.
As can be seen, the political-cultural landscape of the Middle East is indeed complex, and made even more volatile by the Presidency of Trump, and the new wave of global authoritarianism as states/nations hunker down under a post-global outburst of nationalism and nativism. These tendencies will be analyzed more fully in the next article on the role of the US, Iran, Russia and Syria in making the Middle East a global tinderbox.
Arthur Kane Scott is Professor of Humanities and Cultural Studies at the Dominican University of California and Fellow of American Institute of International Studies.
The Journal of America Team:
Editor in chief:
Abdus Sattar Ghazali
Senior Editor:
Prof. Arthur Scott
Special Correspondent
Maryam Turab
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