July 13, 2020
China, India to hold Lt Gen-level talks as China declines
to exchange maps of Western border sector
By Abdus Sattar Ghazali
The Indian Army and the Chinese PLA are expected to hold another round of high-level talks on Tuesday or Wednesday to thrash out modalities for the next phase of de-escalation as part of complete disengagement of troops in eastern Ladakh, Indian military sources were quoted saying by the Press Trust of India.
There was no change in the ground position, and the next phase of the de-escalation process will kick off only after the fourth round of talks between corps commanders of the two sides, the sources said.
The high level military talks will be held amid reports that China has so far refused to exchange maps in the Western sector of India-China border.
Even after 22 rounds of talks on the boundary question, it has shown no inclination to exchange maps or clarify the Line of Actual Control LAC), having exchanged maps for only the central sector, according to One India.
China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has already completed pulling back troops from Gogra, Hot Springs and Galwan Valley and significantly thinned down its presence in the ridgeline of Finger Four in the Pangong Tso area in the last one week as demanded by India, the PTI said.
India has been insisting that China must withdraw its forces from areas between Finger Four and Eight, according to the PTI.
The Indian military sources said the fourth round of Lt General-level talks are likely to be held on either Tuesday or Wednesday and the main focus of it would be to finalize modalities for withdrawal of troops from rear bases of the two militaries.
The formal process of disengagement of troops began on July 6, a day after a nearly two-hour telephonic conversation between National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
The two militaries have held three rounds of Lt General-level talks so far and the last one took place on June 30 during which both sides agreed on an "expeditious, phased and step wise" de-escalation as a "priority" to end the standoff.
The Indian and Chinese armies have been locked in a bitter standoff in multiple locations in eastern Ladakh for over eight weeks since May 5. The tension escalated manifold after a violent clash in Galwan Valley in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed.
Tensions had escalated in eastern Ladakh around two months back after around 250 Chinese and Indian soldiers were engaged in a violent face-off on May 5 and 6. The incident in Pangong Tso was followed by a similar incident in north Sikkim on May 9.
Narendra Modi won’t let fire and fury ignite a war
Meanwhile, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning News (SCMN) quoted observers as saying Monday Modi has taken an aggressive stand in the bloody territorial dispute but he will not risk an all-out conflict.
Eduardo Baptista of SCMN wrote when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a surprise visit to troops near the disputed border after 20 Indian soldiers were killed in a border skirmish with Chinese troops, in a thinly veiled swipe at Beijing, Modi said “the age of expansionism” was over and the weak could not bring about peace.
However, analysts say Modi’s aggressive tone fits the public mood and the policies of his Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has given a freer rein to the army since taking power in 2014, but he will not risk an all out conflict with his larger and better armed neighbor.
Until the BJP’s rise to power six years ago, Indian politics had been dominated by the centre-left Indian National Congress party. The party stressed socio-economic development and a policy of engagement with China after 1947.
However, the two countries did clash in a brief border war in late 1962, resulting in an embarrassing defeat for India and expansion of Chinese territory in the Himalayan area of Aksai Chin.
Even so, the Congress party sought better relations with China after the conflict, which meant keeping the military on a tight leash, Srikanth Kondapalli, a professor of Chinese studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi told SCMN adding: “Congress was always very persuasive and would ask the military not to do this or that along the border because it would aggrieve China.”
This shifted after Modi and the BJP came into power in 2014.
Modi and the BJP represent a turn to a Hindu-centric ideology and away from the secular and pluralistic nationalism that defined the country for more than half a century, said Sumit Ganguly, a professor of political science at Indiana University in the United States.
This ideology was evident in the decision in August last to revoke Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, which had granted the northern Muslim-majority province of Jammu and Kashmir significant autonomy.
“What happened in Kashmir with changing Article 370 was a demand from the nationalist camp,” said Rajesh Rajagopalan, a professor of geopolitics at Jawaharlal Nehru University.
Ganguly said the BJP’s Hindu-centric nationalism influences India’s approach to the issue with China, because the contested border is in Kashmir.
Liu Zongyi, secretary general of the South Asia and China Centre at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies argues that Modi would not let the nationalist fervor lead India into a war with China. “Modi wants to use this nationalist sentiment, but he is also scared of the blowback it might cause,” he said.
Kondapalli agreed, saying that Modi and the BJP feared losing a full military conflict against China. “China’s military power is nearly four times that of India. The BJP understands power, they know that this is the ceiling, this is the limit.”
Experts noted that even if the situation at the border remained stable, Modi and the BJP’s tough stance on regional neighbors like Pakistan and China had already drawn India closer to the US, altering the balance of power in South Asia.
The Journal of America Team:
Editor in chief:
Abdus Sattar Ghazali
Senior Editor:
Prof. Arthur Scott
Special Correspondent
Maryam Turab
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