July 5, 2020
India-China disengagement in Ladakh on Chinese terms
By Abdus-Sattar Ghazali
Indian Defense Expert, Pravin Swahney, says that July 5 Disengagement agreement between India's national security advisor Ajit Doval and China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi was reached on the Chinese terms.
In his You Tube channel Swahney said Wednesday that disengagement plan was agreed on June 30, between the military leadership talks where Indian side by led by 14 Corps commander Lieutenant General Harinder Singh while Chinese side was represented by South Xinjiang Military District chief Major General Liu Lin.
"What was not agreed was terms of the plan because Indian Lt. General was not authorized to sign on the terms of engagement because it needed a higher ministerial level agreement that came on July 5 when India's national security advisor Ajit Doval spoke for two hours by phone with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi," according to the Indian expert.
After the killing of 20 soldiers in Galwan Valley there is urgency on the part of India for disengagement, argued Swahney .
The terms are not secret he said adding that the Chinese side from the beginning of this crisis made it very clear that Ladakh sector is their claim line of November 1959 which was given by Prime Minister Chou Enlai. This will be the new line of actual control.
Neither India or China wants war but the Chinese have capability to negotiate and use force at the same time, he said.
The Indian media did not report (1) how much Indian army will withdraw and (2) How many Indian structures built during the last 27 years will be dismantled because of this disengagement.
He said the government of Narendra Modi should be asked if you have accepted Chinese claim Line of 1959 as the new Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh sector.
Chinese troops 'not withdrawing' from strategic Pangong Tso Lake area
The Pangong Tso Lake Area where India and Chinese troops were stationed face-to-face could be a sticking point between two nations, the Eurasia Times reported Wednesday adding: As the disengagement process between India and China is being worked out, there are reports that the Chinese PLA soldiers have not withdrawn from Pangong Tso Lake Area.
Along with this, Chinese soldiers are also making their presence in the Depsang area, the paper said.
"As far as the Pangong Tso Lake area is concerned, there has been no major disengagement moves by the Chinese PLA troops. On Monday, some Chinese troops moved from Finger 4 towards Finger 5, but it was not really significant. Pangong Tso is likely to remain a sticky point between India and China for some time, the paper said adding:
According to experts - The presence of Chinese PLA troops in Depsang suggests that they are very concerned about the Karakoram highway linking China with Pakistan.
Territorial nationalism a dead end for Modi
The Indian press reported that the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) fell back 1.5 kilometers at the Sino-Indian border in the Galwan Valley in Ladakh a two-hour video chat between Chinese Foreign Minister Yi Wang and Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval on Sunday but the jingoist Indian media portrayed the incident as a win-lose outcome; India is a winner, and China is the loser. The opposite is true, as the agreement gave the Chinese side what it wanted. However, China did want to depict the incident as a zero-sum-game, according to Bhim Bhurtel, former executive director of the Nepal South Asia Center.
China didn't want to hold political-level talks with Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, the pro-US Indian external affairs minister. It preferred to talk with Doval instead, bypassing Jaishankar in the same way as it had avoided Sushma Swaraj, who was external affairs minister during the Doklam standoff in 2017, Bhim Bhurtel said adding:
"Many Indian strategic analysts have misconceptions that China continues to perceive India as a significant hurdle to Beijing's ambition for global prominence. Chinese strategists don't see India as their strategic rival in the short to medium term. However, they consider it a future competitor, say 50-60 years down the road. As a result, Chinese strategists have focused more on dealing with the US over the trade war and, more recently, on the Covid-19 pandemic."
Modi's popularity ploy
Bhurtel believes that Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, seems incapable of differentiating his domestic popularity and strategic decision-making.
"In international relations, what matters is the right strategic judgment and decision-making at the right time. However, Modi seems incapable of differentiating his domestic popularity and India's strategic decision-making," he added.
Reclaiming Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Aksai Chin, China-administered Ladakh, as India's lost territories is the raison d'être of the ruling BJP's territorial nationalism and Modi secured a second term by adopting this territorial-nationalist ideology. Subsequently, he revoked Article 370 of the constitution on the status of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh. He delineated these territories as under direct rule by the central government.
Whatever claims the Indian government and its mouthpieces in the media have been making, India lost its sovereignty and territorial integrity in Ladakh after May 15 this year. H S Panag, a retired Indian Army lieutenant-general, wrote about this in The Print under the title "India's fingers have come under Chinese boots. Denial won't help us."
As an appropriate response to India's new strategy, Chinese strategists started to see India's strategic competitor now as the proxy of the US.
The Doklam standoff in 2017 and the current Ladakh standoff have shown that a PLA major-general of the Western Theater Command and about 8,000 troops can play a crucial role as a millstone around the neck of the Indian political and military leadership.
The Chinese are applying the strategy suggested by their military thinker Sun Tzu about 2,500 years ago. He said, "To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill." China wants to contain India by using Indian territorial nationalism as its crucial weakness, Bhim Bhurtel, concluded.
Abdus Sattar Ghazali is the Chief Editor of the Journal of America (www.journalofamerica.net) Email asghazali2011 (@) gmail.com
The Journal of America Team:
Editor in chief:
Abdus Sattar Ghazali
Senior Editor:
Prof. Arthur Scott
Special Correspondent
Maryam Turab
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