AMP – May 29, 2020
China and India reject President Trump’s mediation in Ladakh face-off
By Abdus Sattar Ghazali
China and India have rejected UPresident Donald Trump’s offer to mediate between China and India to end their border standoff in Ladakh.
Trump on Wednesday offered to “mediate or arbitrate” the raging border dispute between India and China, saying he was “ready, willing and able” to ease the tensions, amid the continuing standoff between the armies of the two Asian giants.
China said Friday (May 29) the two countries are capable of properly resolving their differences through dialogue and did not require the help of a “third party.”
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said, the two countries did not want the “intervention” from a third party to resolve the current military standoff.
Between China and India we have existing border-related mechanisms and communication channels, Zhao told a media briefing here when asked about Trump’s offer. We are capable of properly resolving the issues between us through dialogue and consultation. We do not need the intervention of the third party, he said.
Trump's offer also came up on Thursday in New Delhi during a virtual press conference held by Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Anurag Srivastava. He maintained that India and China "have established mechanisms both at military and diplomatic levels to resolve situations which may arise in border areas peacefully through dialogue and continue to remain engaged through these channels."
However, Defense Secretary Mark Esper held a telephone conversation with his Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh, The Newsweek reported.
The Pentagon released a readout Friday of a telephone conversation between Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh, who together "discussed a range of regional security issues and the Secretary expressed his firm commitment to India's leadership across the Indo-Pacific" among other topics.
The Indian Defense Ministry said Esper and Singh "reviewed progress on various bilateral defense cooperation arrangements and expressed their commitment to further promote our defense partnership."
China expands airbase near Ladakh
Satellite images show massive construction activity at a high altitude Chinese air base, located just 200 kilometres away from the Pangong Lake, the site of the skirmish between forces of India and China on May 5 and May 6, according to NDTV network of India.
Two images, exclusively sourced from the open source intelligence expert with ShadowBreak Intl., show the Ngari Gunsa airport in Tibet. The first image is dated April 6, 2020 while the second one, dated May 21, this year, shows massive construction activity including the addition of what appears to be a second taxi-track or a secondary tarmac to position helicopters or combat aircraft. A third image shows a close-up of the main tarmac at the airport with a line-up of four fighter jets believed to be either J-11 or J-16 fighters of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force.
The J-11/J-16 are advanced, domestically produced variants of the Russian Sukhoi 27 and broadly match the capabilities of the Indian Air Forces Sukhoi 30 MKIs, its most potent fighter until the arrival of the first batch of Dassault Rafales in a few weeks.
The location of the Ngari Gunsa air base is particularly significant. A dual-use military and civil airport is located at 14,022 feet, which makes it among the highest in the world.
Reports indicate that several thousand Chinese soldiers have either crossed or are very close to the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh. The skirmishes which began on May 5 this year have seen vicious hand-to-hand fighting between Indian and Chinese forces on the North bank of the Pangong Lake. The biggest area of concern is thought to be the Galwan River basin further North where Chinese forces are reported to have positioned themselves to threaten a road completed last year which leads up to Daulat Beg Oldie, a crucial Indian Air Force base in Ladakh which supplies Indian soldiers in the region.
Multiple meetings have been held between local commanders from the rank of Colonel to Major General in Ladakh but there has been no breakthrough at the moment.
China’s move in Ladakh is alarming?
The unprecedented high levels of tension at multiple locations in eastern Ladakh on the disputed India-China border, where Chinese soldiers have moved into Indian territory across the Line of Actual Control (LAC), has raised questions about the Chinese motives for this action. Most observers were eagerly waiting for Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s annual press conference on the sidelines of the Communist Party Congress for an explanation, but his 100-minute long presser in Beijing on last Sunday did not mention India at all, according to the Indian Express.
Lt General DS Hooda (retd), who was the Northern Army Commander during the 2014 standoff at Chumar, was quoted by the Indian Express as saying: “there is certainly an element of coercion in what the PLA is doing along the LAC. In the past, the redlines of both sides were clear and limited to a specific geographical area, e.g., Chumar or Doklam.
“With multiple intrusions, the Chinese have upped the ante with a view to pressure India. I really can’t speculate about what their final intentions are, but their behavior carries great risks. As past incidents show, India will not back off from matching military moves.” he said.
Ashok Kantha, who was India’s ambassador to China from 2014 to 2016, contends that “this is part of a larger pattern of behavior from the Chinese and should not be seen as localized and isolated incidents in pockets along the India-China border. It is reflective of increased Chinese assertiveness. Look, how are their diplomats talking? We didn’t create the term wolf-warrior diplomacy, they did. The Chinese media has put out that there are clear instructions to their diplomats to push back. It is possible that similar orders have been passed on to the military commanders as well, both along the India-China border and in the South China Sea to be more assertive.”
“We should not be downplaying these serious developments in India-China border areas,” warned Kantha.
Trump offers to mediate in China-India showdown in Ladakh
By Abdus Sattar Ghazali
President Donald Trump offered on Wednesday (May 27) to mediate in what he called a "raging" border showdown between India and China in the Himalayas.
Trump, who has sought closer ties with India in recent years while also being involved in a tense trade showdown with China, made his offer in a Twitter statement.
"We have informed both India and China that the United States is ready, willing and able to mediate or arbitrate their now raging border dispute. Thank you!" he said.
Trump's offer came after Indian military sources said hundreds of Chinese troops had moved into a disputed zone along with 3,500-km-long frontier in India-administered Kashmir's Ladakh region.
Two weeks ago several Indian and Chinese troops were hurt during fistfights and stone-throwing in another sector.
India unilaterally declared Ladakh region a federal territory while separating it from disputed Kashmir in August 2019.
China was among the handful of countries to strongly condemn the move, raising it at international forums including the UN Security Council.
India and China fought a war over India's northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh in 1962. China still claims some 90,000 sq km of territory under New Delhi's control.
While no shot has been fired across their border for more than four decades, there have been numerous face-offs.
Intelligence report
The Wire reported Indian intelligence sources as saying:
1. After the snows melted, starting in the third week of April, the Chinese side opened six active fronts – at Galwan, Pangong, Demchok, Naku La and 14 km east of Doklam in Bhutanese territory.
2. The Chinese action is not an accident or happenstance, it is clearly by design. The Indian Army and ITBP are being “pushed back, kilometre by kilometre”. It seems that in a month almost 35 square kilometres have been “lost” this way in a month.
3. The plan may include compromising the Indian presence from NJ9842 – the last demarcated point on the India-Pakistan Line of Control, up the Siachen Glacier to the Karakoram Pass.
4. When India moves troops to this section, as it has, the Pakistan Army is expected to begin pin pricks, thus opening up a challenge for India on two fronts.
The Wire also said that Indian TV networks were advised by the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi not to discuss Chinese incursion into Ladakh.
According to Ashok Swain, Professor of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Sweden, Indian Army being “pushed back, kilometre by kilometre” by Chines forces. It seems that in a month almost 35 sq km have been “lost” to China this way in a month. But, India's 'nationalist TV anchors' have been told to stay away from this topic.
So far, all the Modi government has said on the record is that China has “hindered” routine Indian patrolling.
The Wire pointed out that this is identical to the pattern the Modi government followed during the 2017 stand off between the Indian Army and the Chinese People’ Liberation Army (PLA) over China’s construction of a road in Doklam in Bhutan. The military standoff lasted 73 days and till date neither the Modi government (in its first term) nor China have officially gone on the record about the deal that was struck to stave off a more serious confrontation.
A senior official of the security establishment told The Wire, “China has assessed that we are the weakest ever right now in terms of friends – especially after the flare up with Nepal – the economy, political resolve and internal coherence. Hence the aggression”.
Abdus Sattar Ghazali is the Chief Editor of the Journal of America (www.journalofamerica.net) email: asghazali2011 (@) gmail.com
The Journal of America Team:
Editor in chief:
Abdus Sattar Ghazali
Senior Editor:
Prof. Arthur Scott
Special Correspondent
Maryam Turab
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