September 6, 2020
China-India Standoff Risks Unintentional War : Experts Warn
By Abdus Sattar Ghazali
Pravin Sawhney, an Indian defense analyst and China expert if any war breaks out between China and India,, Pakistan will pitch in and it will be a three-front conflict.
The Associated Press Saturday quoted Sawhney as saying: “We are entering into a very difficult phase….Disengagement is a criticality to avoid war, which the two nations don’t want. But if any war breaks out, Pakistan will pitch in, and so would Kashmiris. It will be a three-front conflict.”
Lt. Gen. D.S. Hooda, who was head of the Indian military’s Northern Command from 2014 to 2016, agreed with Swahny’s warning when he said:
“The situation is very dangerous on the ground and can spiral out of control….A lot will depend on whether the two sides are able to control the volatile situation and make sure it doesn’t spread to other areas.”
Hooda added that while he doesn’t think either side is looking for full-scale war, the “real calamity” is the breakdown of existing agreements and protocols.
Another area of concern for India's military is the country's decades-old territorial dispute over Kashmir with archrival Pakistan, a key ally of China. Indian military policymakers say that if a full-scale conflict erupts between India and China, Islamabad could throw its support behind Beijing, creating an even more dangerous situation for New Delhi, according to AP.
Gen. Bipin Rawat, India’s chief of Defense Staff, warned Pakistan last week not to exploit the crisis with China. “Pakistan could take advantage of any threat developing along northern borders (from China) and create trouble for us,” Rawat said, warning that Islamabad “may suffer heavy losses should they attempt any misadventure.”
The Associated Press quoted Wang Lian, a professor of international relations at Peking University in Beijing, as saying that the possibility of open warfare is unlikely because both sides have shown restraint in recent encounters. But he also said that New Delhi is under pressure from domestic anti-China sentiment and has been emboldened by tougher U.S. measures against Beijing.
Himalayan border tension is a recipe for disaster
Commenting on the Ladakh Standoff, the Financial Times of UK, quoted Gautam Bambawale, India’s former ambassador to Beijing as saying: “What they are doing now is they are saying ‘we will unilaterally decide where the line of actual control lies in Ladakh’. That is a recipe for disaster. It is not acceptable to us.”
Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, said Beijing had grown frustrated after years of talks that failed to make progress on a mutually defined line of control, while India developed infrastructure in areas that China considered its own.
“A settlement or a rough consensus on the line of control can only be settled on the ground,” Ms Sun said. “They had attempted to reach a consensus. But what the Chinese found out is that the Indian negotiating position was ‘what’s mine is mine, and what’s yours is negotiable’.”
The Financial Times pointed out that analysts have warned that there could be more skirmishes in the next few weeks as both armies seek to improve their ground positions. The two countries also face the prospect of a high-altitude stand-off during the harsh winter, when temperatures on the Tibetan plateau fall to -40C.
“The Indians will now have to patrol the border with China in a manpower intensive way,” said Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at New Delhi’s Centre for Policy Research. “It will be a very expensive proposition but India will have to bear this cost. There is no other choice.”
According to Lin Minwang, an international relations scholar at Fudan university in Shanghai, China was no longer willing to “allow” India access to Chinese built roads along a series of ridges on the north shore of Pangong Lake. China claims the area as its own but Indian troops were previously able to patrol there. New Delhi has demanded the withdrawal of the PLA troops, but Beijing has refused.
“India wants to return to the situation of a few months ago, where China allows them to go into areas it claims,” Mr Lin said. “It’s not that China has become more unyielding but rather that after the 2017 Doklam stand-off, China drew the lesson that . . . you have to use your army’s might to support your position.”
Indian analysts said June’s fatal border stand-off marked the end of an era in Sino-Indian relations. Given the high levels of mutual suspicion and mistrust, they warned that tensions along the border would probably cast a long shadow over Sino-Indian relations in many other areas, too.
“The whole architecture for maintaining peace and tranquility has collapsed and is lying in ruins,” said Mr Bambawale. “The Chinese have decided they want a hard boundary. By taking this action, they have very clearly spelt out what kind of relationship they would want with India. It is going to deteriorate politically, militarily and economically.”
Abdus Sattar Ghazali is the Chief Editor of the Journal of America (www.journalofamerica.net) email: asghazali2011 (@) gmail.com
The Journal of America Team:
Editor in chief:
Abdus Sattar Ghazali
Senior Editor:
Prof. Arthur Scott
Special Correspondent
Maryam Turab
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